As grim as it sounds, we believe these signs will grow more apparent in the coming weeks as the is set to continue higher, sparking more risk-aversion and another leg down in the market. Our thesis comes from the premise that the FED will increase interest rates in November 2022, further crashing the market in order to beat high .
In our opinion, these macroeconomic factors, combined with technical ones, foreshadow a new low for Bitcoin in 2022 and a continuation lower in 2023. Additionally, the lack of liquidity reflected in low monthly volumes suggests Bitcoin is not gaining any interest among new investors, which is an obstacle for the trend to reverse; meanwhile, this lack of liquidity has been responsible for wild moves up and down in the past months.
At the moment, we pay close attention to the at 20 381 USD, which is the 27th September 2022 high. For the short-term, it would be if the price managed to break above this level and stay there. However, a failure of the price to hold above the resistance will suggest a return to the lower end of the range, in which Bitcoin has been trading for the past few weeks.
Despite the short-term potential in Bitcoin , we have no reason to backtrack on our views. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. We will update our thoughts as time progresses.
Yesterday, we showed several signs of exhaustion accompanying the price rise and subsequent breakout above the . We said that the breakout would be ; however, it became quickly invalidated when the price fell back below the . That is yet another sign of exhaustion. Despite that, the short-term trend is neutral/slightly ; therefore, we will remain very cautious today and closely monitor the price action and levels.
Technical analysis – daily time frame
is slightly ; however, it is showing signs of exhaustion already. is neutral; if it breaks above the mid-point, it will be . is . DM+ and DM- are . The daily time frame is slightly , with a very weak trend.
Illustration 1.02 displays the of BTCUSD and particular levels of interest.
Technical analysis – weekly time frame
is neutral. is also neutral. points to the upside but stays in the zone. DM+ and DM- are . Overall, the weekly time frame is ; but the trend grew substantially weaker over the past few weeks.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.